Ad Age has this on the "Decline of the :30". Not that we haven't heard it pronounced dead before (see IBM Post below)...

Most interesting quote:

It's not so simple for newer approaches such as viral and video tailored specifically for the internet. "[Agencies] don't know how to price it; they don't have the systems for it. It almost always becomes more labor-intensive."

I've seen a lot of the same thing in print - it's not that the work is going away, it's that the margins that can be realized from highly-evolved workflows just aren't there in the newer, more experimental media mixes. Meanwhile, the stuff we spent a decade figuring out how to do cost-effectively has become commoditized (logical next step, of course).
However, for us at N-GEN, the ability to leverage our 3D, Illustration and retouching talent can make up for production belt-tightening by letting us add more value earlier in the process - and save money on things like shoots as well.

Thanks to Mark Van Duinen for this one!
Ad Age article